• 11111one11111@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    How can a community dedicated to housing bubbles not understand what caused the 2008 crash? It had nothing to do with the # of houses up for sale. It was the coreupt flexible rate mortgages being issued for a decade before 2008 that caused it. Where do you get that from a fuckin chart that only shows the quantity of houses being sold?

    • sunzu@kbin.run
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      6 days ago

      You are talking about two different markets in this comment though:

      1. CLO/MBS securities, some of which contained variable rate mortgages
      2. buying/selling residences

      1 crashed as results of 2 fail, ie people stop trading due to jobs issue.

      Coming back to 2024, we are in only got 2 in play. People are not really buying or selling houses because people don’t get paid enough to justify the current price v monthly expense. Either price goes down or interest. It does not have to be economic doom unless something else fails along with it.

    • SeattleRain@lemmy.worldOPM
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      7 days ago

      There’s a ton of exotic DSCR loans underwritten by private equity firms that have HIGH interest rates. They may not be as pervasive as ARMs were in '08 but there’s more than enough of them to effect the market if they collapse.

      It’s a myth that people there’s tons of people who won’t give up their “4% mortgage”. Only well capitalized investors could get that. Most investors paid way over both on price and financing through doggy private equity financing. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

      • 11111one11111@lemmy.world
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        7 days ago

        My b I didn’t see you responded back to original comment. If this is common knowledge in that area than I suppose but you still haven’t shown where you are drawing this information from and even admit the mortgages now are better than 2008. Not really sure why your getting pissy saying I don’t know what I am talking about when all I’m asking is where you are drawing your information from when all that was given is a chart showing volume of houses on the market. Either way hope your night gets better than whatever put you such an abrasive mood🍻

      • GBU_28@lemm.ee
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        6 days ago

        That’s untrue, sub 4 was completely available to qualified buyers of “normal” status/income.

        • SeattleRain@lemmy.worldOPM
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          6 days ago

          For rentals? For borrowers with little to now down? Not really. And these borrowers didn’t stop with one rental, they’d get several sometimes dozens. That’s why you saw so many real estate Tik Tokers during the pandemic.

          • GBU_28@lemm.ee
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            6 days ago

            Where did rentals come up? I’m discussing purchases.

            I don’t get information from TikTok, I get it from professionals

            • SeattleRain@lemmy.worldOPM
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              6 days ago

              Exotic loams liken DSCRs are only used to buy investment properties. Investor demand is what’s driving the shortage and exploding home prices. Just like in '08.

              Yes many primary residency borrowers got 4 percent on traditional loans. But investors didn’t because they were in a buying frenzy from 2019-2022. They couldn’t wait for traditional mortgages, these were the supposed “cash buyers” that were infamously waiving inspections and appraisals. The FHA isn’t going to let you do that.

              Go ahead and get your news from “professionals” who were denying the existence of a bubble at all until this month.

    • SeattleRain@lemmy.worldOPM
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      7 days ago

      Sure, but there’s tons of homes now that are not cash flowing and are only being held on by investors because of the equity they have.

      If inventory keeps rising and prices fall it could trigger a rush for the exits.

      • 11111one11111@lemmy.world
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        7 days ago

        Lol where do you get that from houses being for sale? Or are you adding your own context? If that’s the case do you have anything you can provide a link that supports this? Not being contradictory, would like to see why there are so many investment properties hitting the market.

        • SeattleRain@lemmy.worldOPM
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          7 days ago

          Because if there’s a ton of supply then sellers have to get more competitive. It’s already happening on the new build side. You can get every upgrade practically for free, big buy downs on interest rate, etc.

          • 11111one11111@lemmy.world
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            7 days ago

            But how are you getting that from the graph is all I’m asking. That is a hardly even speculative without anything to indicate all these sellers aren’t in the market to buy another house in the same area. You would need some indication they were all leaving the area or selling to move into a rental.

  • Imacat@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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    7 days ago

    By this same logic, someone in 2004-2005 could look back to the crash in the 80s and see they’re at the same level as that peak and a crash is imminent. In fact it was a year or two away and new homes for sale were going to go up another 50% before the crash.

    That’s not to say that things looks good. Some sort of correction is probably coming but it could be another year or two or more.