Summary
Germany warns that Russia is rearming faster than expected, replacing war losses and stockpiling tanks, missiles, and drones.
Putin has redirected Russia’s economy to fuel its military, aided by supplies from Iran and North Korea.
While there’s no clear evidence of plans to attack NATO, Russia is creating the conditions for it.
On the Ukraine front, Russian forces are advancing in south Donetsk, nearing strategic town Pokrovsk, a key supply hub and coal mining center.
Analysts suggest Putin aims to seize land before potential peace talks.
Now that Putin’s asset (Donald J Trump) accomplished his mission of taking the presidency and is in progress to dismantle american institutions, it would be a good time for Russia to make a move against the previously-called “american interests”
It’s a great time to do that. Trump won’t interfere as a very well known Russian asset.
We live in a world where might makes right. International laws and norms were killed on Oct 9, 2023.
The erosion of international laws and norms –insofar as these were ever a thing and not merely a hopeful illusion– did not begin with Israel’s Gaza campaign; by the time Israel started bombing Gaza, international laws and norms had already been put into question by the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia, the 2003 invasion of Iraq led by the United States and the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, to name a few. The list is not exhaustive and any bias unintended.
Nothing like what’s happening in Palestine though. The US didn’t kill as many children or destroy as much infrastructure as Israel did. Despite the criminality of the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, their intentions weren’t genocidal even if they did show complete disregard for human lives. Somehow Israel has impunity that no one else has, and committed war crimes at a rate and scale that not even Russia did in Ukraine. Israel intentionally created a famine in the Gaza Strip as part of its campaign against the Palestinians as a people.
2 surgical nukes and we can melt putin back into the puddle of excrement he really is.
I hope we doesn’t mean the US. Trump isn’t going to bite the hand that feeds him.
surprise surprise! just after his little orange butt plug was sworn in too!
Russia has faced a tiny fraction of NATO’s combined military strength and has failed to produce any meaningful results. Attacking NATO would be suicidal
and has failed to produce any meaningful results.
The absolute delusion among you people.
Sure, at this rate Russia should take all of Ukraine… in roughly 100 years.
When Ukraine stops receiving arms from the USA the odds might switch towards Russias favour 😢
Hopefully other countries can make up the difference.
Yeah, war really brings out the stupidity in you people.
You just can’t understand propaganda for what it is.
If you just give me 3 days for a special understanding propaganda operation.
You keep saying “you people” as if the war would affect you lol
I guess I must just be too stupid to preemptively surrender
Simultaneously so weak and incompetent that they can’t take a village of 80 year olds but so scary that they’ll go to war with like a fifth of the planet.
How does the Umberto Eco thing go again?
NATO is not a monolithic defense shield. There are weak points that Russia can go after.
The Baltics are made up of very small nations that Russia even in its current state could roll through in a few days.
Once they take those countries they can just sit on them and declare that they will use nukes to defend them.
That leaves NATO in a very bad position militarily of having to retake those countries with the very real threat of nuclear war. It will test the resolve of Alliance members especially those who aren’t immediately adjacent to Russia and are not threatened by them militarily. Will they risk the lives of their people?
Combine that action with China trying to take Taiwan and a US that is not very reliable under Trump and it’s not nearly as cut and dry as you think it may be.
The Baltics are made up of very small nations that Russia even in its current state could roll through in a few days.
They thought that about Ukraine as well… It’s 2025 and the Russian border is probably one of the most observed in the world right now. The chances of a Blitzkrieg style attack is nil.
That said if there was ever a time for the EU to start building up its war machine, that time is now.
No one can predict the future but Ukraine has caught Russia unprepared by rushing small but well equipped units to the front to take land during the Kursk offensive and then rush reinforcements in afterwards.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Russia to do the same in the Baltics.
Simultaneously so weak and incompetent that they can’t take a village of 80 year olds
If they’re that weak, why hasn’t Ukraine beaten them out yet?
Because they’re given just enough resources to bleed Russia, without giving them enough to beat them.
Ukraine want them gone for sure, but the US would rather Russia just waste its resources on a futile war.
I suspect Trump’s “peace plan” is just “everybody keeps the ground they’re currently on and have a ceasefire while they build up resources again”.
While there’s no clear evidence of plans to attack NATO, Russia is creating the conditions for it.
This is also a very telling sentence.
“There’s not evidence this is even on their minds or that they would ever attempt such a monumentally stupid move, buuut…just use your 🌈 imagination 💫”
The Telegraph loves this. “<Insert shocking headline> MAY OCCUR!!” = It has not been proven mathematically impossible.
While there’s no clear evidence of plans to attack NATO, Russia is creating the conditions for it.
Have they read the news within the last 3 years?
lmao, russians can stockpile rocks and have their propaganda call it best weapon ever.
Kinda seems like Russia is getting fucked up pretty badly already and they haven’t even taken one country. Seems doubtful they would have much luck against an alliance.
If the US leaves that alliance and then starts surreptitiously sending drone parts to Russia, it’ll get dicey.
If the AfD forms a coalition government with the normal conservatives and Germany decides to turn inwards and keep Deutsche money für die Deutscher, it’ll get dicey.
If Macron finally completes his heel turn and appoints Marine le Pen to interior secretary…
If Italy keeps going the way they’ve been going…
If the Finnish right decides that joining NATO was a mistake that let too many minorities in…
If the rest of Africa goes along with the Sahel nations and starts funneling their resources into the Russian war machine…
If Modhi lets Russia open more factories in India…
If China decides that they’re cool with sharing power on the global scale and fully buys in on the BRICS bloc…
Russia looks weak right now because the invasion has been such and embarrassment, but that can change surprisingly quickly. The global shift towards authoritarianism is coming hand-in-hand with a shift away from US/Eurocentric hegemony.
They will if they have the US backing them.
Still seems like they’d get their shit wrecked if they started a war with Europe, even with help.
You vastly underestimate the size and power of the US military. This isn’t even a brag; it’s atrocious that our military is so large, but the US would have little trouble taking on Europe.
The US can’t project power without aircraft carriers which would be gone quite quickly. Noone has a counter against stealth subs and Europe has both the best and plenty.
That’s what they said about Afghanistan too though. Plus, the odds of the US getting directly involved in a war against Europe any time soon are still pretty damn low.
An armchair analyst take here but I think they are gearing up to finally try to take Pokrovsk in the spring.
Folks at lemmy.ml were shouting from the rafters most of last year: Invading Kursk was a mistake! Russia will drive them back, and Pokrovsk will fall any day now! But like Avdiivka, I expect it to be a siege and for it to take a while. If they can take it early enough this year, Russia will again be able to conquer massive swaths of farmland because that’s really the only thing the “throw bodies at the problem” strategy is very effective at. If Ukraine holds out until the late fall, Russia will again be stalled for months, so the pace of their entire army will be “1 regional hub per year”, which I’m not sure is sustainable for Russia’s economy and society.
Honestly the pace of Russian advancement has been slowing down which is understandable because their losses are not sustainable. Their only hope for true victory is if Ukrainian losses are even less sustainable.
This is possible, especially if Germany and the US, the 2 wealthiest partners, cut off or scale back aid. But at the moment Ukraine seems slightly ahead of the attrition game and the US just INCREASED sanctions.
Perun (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EHUQmJCa3aY) just released a video yesterday that went over Ukraine’s war material situation.
TLDW: Ukrainian military equipment is for the most part qualitative better than it was at the start of the war but not qualitative.
Russia on the other hand is qualitatively worse, is running out of reserve war equipment (Soviet stockpiles), and is expected to deplete some of categories of equipment sometime in 2024 (tank stockpile source: Covert Cabal https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K8CcuVCDEUw).
That’s about what I thought. Ukraine has gotten 40 trucks here, 12 tanks there. Better than the old Soviet stuff Russia is using, but not enough to decisively turn the tables.
