Feels like the automotive world is in utter chaos.
I think maybe a whole lot of rich and powerful people in the automotive industry are beginning to realize that most of the automotive industry is going to be “commodified” and entirely eradicated by shockingly affordable relatively small electric vehicles from China (and hopefully elsewhere too! If places elsewhere don’t just thumb their noses and say “that’s what CHINA does”) that not only displace their fossil fuel counterparts but more broadly destabilize the focus of the car as the center of modern life in a way that I don’t imagine anybody fucked up enough in their heart to make it to the top of the automotive industry can really accept.
I don’t know about other countries, but I honestly don’t see that happening in the US.
I would love it if cars stop being so central to modern life, but we’re so far down that path that it just isn’t happening.
Commodity cars from China and elsewhere will probably consumer the bottom of the market for commuters, but it won’t replace the middle and higher ends of the car markets, and those are the most valuable anyway.
The thing is, EVs are remarkably simple. Instead of a complex engine, it’s just a battery and motor, and batteries are getting cheaper. So companies like Tesla will need to provide value some other way (self-driving, range, interior features, etc), since just getting from A to B is a lot easier to compete on. I have no doubt companies will do that, so there’s very little risk of the auto industry collapsing, they’ll just need to shift toward branding and premium features (which they’re already doing). It’s just that it’s at an awkward transition point since EV range doesn’t quite meet customer needs, charging network isn’t quite good enough, and fossil fuels are a short-term solution since both battery tech (e.g. range) and charging networks are getting better (so something like 5 years until ICE is almost entirely unnecessary for average consumers).
I think maybe a whole lot of rich and powerful people in the automotive industry are beginning to realize that most of the automotive industry is going to be “commodified” and entirely eradicated by shockingly affordable relatively small electric vehicles from China (and hopefully elsewhere too! If places elsewhere don’t just thumb their noses and say “that’s what CHINA does”) that not only displace their fossil fuel counterparts but more broadly destabilize the focus of the car as the center of modern life in a way that I don’t imagine anybody fucked up enough in their heart to make it to the top of the automotive industry can really accept.
I don’t know about other countries, but I honestly don’t see that happening in the US.
I would love it if cars stop being so central to modern life, but we’re so far down that path that it just isn’t happening.
Commodity cars from China and elsewhere will probably consumer the bottom of the market for commuters, but it won’t replace the middle and higher ends of the car markets, and those are the most valuable anyway.
The thing is, EVs are remarkably simple. Instead of a complex engine, it’s just a battery and motor, and batteries are getting cheaper. So companies like Tesla will need to provide value some other way (self-driving, range, interior features, etc), since just getting from A to B is a lot easier to compete on. I have no doubt companies will do that, so there’s very little risk of the auto industry collapsing, they’ll just need to shift toward branding and premium features (which they’re already doing). It’s just that it’s at an awkward transition point since EV range doesn’t quite meet customer needs, charging network isn’t quite good enough, and fossil fuels are a short-term solution since both battery tech (e.g. range) and charging networks are getting better (so something like 5 years until ICE is almost entirely unnecessary for average consumers).