After death of Joshua Dean & John Barnett, their lawyers are concerned about the possibility that around 10 more Boeing whistleblowers may suffer the same fate.
Also understand that it is pretty rare for a whistleblower to have any future in the industry they are blowing the whistle on. That is throwing away years of schooling and often decades of experience. People tend to not do that if they aren’t already ill and not expecting a long life.
As for “if I die, it is not suicide”: Gonna get real dark for a moment. A lot of people are just looking for a way to make their life, or death, matter. Someone realizing they don’t want to put themselves and their family through a very long trial might very well use that as an excuse to take the easy way out.
All that said: Obviously these need to be investigated. But there is a big difference between investigating a suspicious death and immediately jumping to conspiracy.
It means that there is a 99.998% chance that they were murdered, misdiagnosed or are not really dead.
There haven’t even been 1000 whistleblowers cases in recorded history, and the fact that the two deaths happened means the most likely cause by far was murder
We are talking in the context of with 12 whistleblowers on the same case. There are more cases with single wistleblowers, but also, the fewer whistleblowers per case, the lower the chance of one of them dying of suicide or MRSA.
For example, if there had only been 2 whistleblowers in total in this case, not 12, the chance of both dying from suicide and MRSA would be 0.00014 * 0.000062 =
0.00000000868 (0.000000868%).
And you are still enacting conspiracy theory 101. You have a questionable fact that you are going to keep drilling down on and use to justify every single claim you have. But you completely ignore why suicide rates might be higher for people in a whistleblower situation or why people might be at heightened risk of medical complications in 2024. And why that may also have a link to deciding to throw away a career in the interest of the public good.
And the worst part? This will do exactly what every other nutbrain conspiracy theory does. It provides incredibly easy to refute accusations and then undermines anyone who actually cares about how much boeing knowingly allowed. Because all the people who will point out exactly what these whistleblowers fought to get out there? They are dragged down by your ranting and raving.
Maybe it was murder, maybe it was just two tragic deaths. Time will tell. But let’s focus on the actual accusations rather than make up some because we want a really juicy true crime podcast?
The chance of killing youself after saying you’re not killing yourself negates any raised suicide rate of whistleblowers, and when the chance of foulplay is vastly higher than it not being foulplay, it is no longer a conspiracy theory.
Having two whistleblowers from the same case suddenly die is extremely unlikely.
I didn’t make up any accusations. I stated how it is vastly more likely they were murdered than that they weren’t if I removed any circumstantial information. Adding circumstantial information very likely sways it even further into murder territory, and not the opposite as you claim.
And the worst part? This will do exactly what every other nutbrain conspiracy theory does. It provides incredibly easy to refute accusations and then undermines anyone who actually cares about how much boeing knowingly allowed. Because all the people who will point out exactly what these whistleblowers fought to get out there? They are dragged down by your ranting and raving.
This is such a ridiculous argument when your argument essentially is shilling for a company and trying to downplay how suspicious this whole thing is. By easily refutable you must mean “maybe a meteor killed both” levels of stars aligning.
But let’s focus on the actual accusations rather than make up some because we want a really juicy true crime podcast?
Them being murdered automatically becomes an actual accusation.
Assassinations are not a rare occurrence, but you’re making it sound like fairy tale material.
The chance of killing youself after saying you’re not killing yourself negates any raised suicide rate of whistleblowers,
Ah, thank you for explaining that.
A quick google that has totally gotten me on a list says that it is estimated that about 5-10% of people who have attempted suicide will die by suicide within a year. Many of those people were talked down and said they weren’t going to… until they did.
and when the chance of foulplay is vastly higher than it not being foulplay,
Citation requested
Having two whistleblowers from the same case suddenly die is extremely unlikely.
Oh, is that the entirety of it? Okay. Planes tend to not have doors fall off. So if there are multiple doors falling off of planes it can’t possibly be a systemic issue. It is actually an evil conspiracy theory out to attack Boeing. Because anything else by my poorly defined metrics is extremely unlikely
I didn’t make up any accusations. I stated how it is vastly more likely they were murdered than that they weren’t if I removed any circumstantial information. Adding circumstantial information very likely sways it even further into murder territory, and not the opposite as you claim.
So…
I am not accusing parpol of being a pedophile or anything. I am just saying that if I specifically pick and choose what facts and statistics I want to talk about then it totally is guaranteed and anyone who disagrees is a corporate bootlicker.
Hey, that is fun.
This is such a ridiculous argument when your argument essentially is shilling for a company and trying to downplay how suspicious this whole thing is. By easily refutable you must mean “maybe a meteor killed both” levels of stars aligning.
No. I am not trying to downplay things. I am doing the opposite. I want people to focus on the actual safety issues and design issues. Not to fantasize over what T Swizzy Wizzle will say on the podcast about this in a few months.
Also, real talk? Just because someone doesn’t support you in every single way does not mean they are “shilling for a company”
Assassinations are not a rare occurrence, but you’re making it sound like fairy tale material.
… Yes. Yes assassinations are actually a very rare occurrence. Quick google says the murder rate in the US in 2022 was 5-6 murders per 100,000 people. If we assume all of those are assassinations (and not just kids dying in “gang violence” in a preschool). Same google says 14.5 suicides per 100,000 people.
Hmmm. So a bit under 3x. And, switching to chatgpt because I can’t be bothered to math across the different demographics, we get 100-150 deaths per 100,000 men aged 18 to 50 from medical complications.
And suicide rates go up drastically when people are overly stressed and think they have no future. Sort of like… having contributed to incredibly dangerous air travel and burning bridges with an entire industry.
Similarly, like I said, a lot of whistleblowers are ill to begin with. Because, again, it is throwing away your future in an industry. It is a lot easier to consider that when your future on this planet is measured in years or even months.
You don’t compare the stats to the population in its entirety. That’s like trying to calculate how dangerous it is for cyclists on the road by using the entire population. Most Americans don’t even own a bike. It is literally impossible for them to die riding their bike to work because they never ride a bike to work. They should not be included in an assessment of how dangerous it is/isn’t to be a daily bike commuter. Only people who ride bikes regularly should be included.
An example I use in another comment: you are far more likely to die falling to your death if you skydive once a year than the average American. If you suddenly died due to a parachute malfunction nobody would immediately start citing how statistically unusual it is for an American to die from falling to their death. You would be compared against the larger skydiving population and other risk factors would be assessed with that.
No, the whole point is you don’t unless you’re specifically asking “how likely is it for anyone” which is not applicable here. That’s like me trying to figure out how likely I am to die of diabetes within 24hrs when I don’t have diabetes. The answer is 0%, because I don’t have diabetes. So including me in a stat about likelihood of death when discussing diabetes is bad math unless you are trying to calculate the likelihood of it happening to literally anyone, which is not useful beyond answering that specific question.
You’re also denying the existence of more at-risk groups for things like suicide and illnesses. Different groups are more at risk than others. Imagine calculating how likely someone is to be an alcoholic without considering family history, their social and economic realities, etc. all of which increase or decrease the % chance they will develop alcoholism. Literally 0 experts will agree with your assessment if you leave those risk factors out.
You don’t include people who aren’t at risk of MRSA. You and I right now discussing this have a near-0% chance of catching it. So near that it functionally is 0%. We are not useful information. We should not be included in calculating the probability because he is more at risk by a large margin. We are not part of the data set.
From what is currently known about the two whistleblowers neither were particularly at higher risk of suicide or MRSA. The person who died of MRSA was healthy and active with no history of hospitalization whatsoever. Close friends of the first whistleblower claim that suicide was very unlike him, and his previous statement of “if anything happens, it wasn’t suicide” strengthens that.
There are other commenters here speculating that being a whistleblower makes you at higher risk of suicide, but there are no official statistics on that, so it is at most speculation, therefore I need to use general statistics.
All probabilistic models and datasets eventually get replaced with more accurate ones, but that doesn’t discredit them until then.
Well, for one thing, the definition of “conspiracy” is “a secret agreement between two or more people to perform an unlawful act”. So… you can’t have a one person conspiracy.
Yes. What you are listing are coincidences.
Also understand that it is pretty rare for a whistleblower to have any future in the industry they are blowing the whistle on. That is throwing away years of schooling and often decades of experience. People tend to not do that if they aren’t already ill and not expecting a long life.
As for “if I die, it is not suicide”: Gonna get real dark for a moment. A lot of people are just looking for a way to make their life, or death, matter. Someone realizing they don’t want to put themselves and their family through a very long trial might very well use that as an excuse to take the easy way out.
All that said: Obviously these need to be investigated. But there is a big difference between investigating a suspicious death and immediately jumping to conspiracy.
Even looking at it from a statistical perspective, these are low chances.
Let’s do the numbers.
Suicide rate is 14 / 100,000 (0.00014).
Deaths from MRSA in the US in 2017 was 20,000 / 325,100,000 (0.000062).
The chance of either happening to one person is 0.000202 (0.02%). The chance of it happening to 2/12 whistleblowers in the same year is:
1-((1−(14÷100,000))×(1−(20,000÷325,100,000)))^6 =
0.00120845658 (0.12%),
1 out of 826 cases with 12 whistleblowers would have this outcome.
Better than 1 in a thousand, makes it seem less unlikely.
It means that there is a 99.998% chance that they were murdered, misdiagnosed or are not really dead.
There haven’t even been 1000 whistleblowers cases in recorded history, and the fact that the two deaths happened means the most likely cause by far was murder
The SEC had 12k. Whistle blower tips in 2022 alone, so I’m going to say that less then 1000 cases in recorded history is a lie.
We are talking in the context of with 12 whistleblowers on the same case. There are more cases with single wistleblowers, but also, the fewer whistleblowers per case, the lower the chance of one of them dying of suicide or MRSA.
For example, if there had only been 2 whistleblowers in total in this case, not 12, the chance of both dying from suicide and MRSA would be 0.00014 * 0.000062 = 0.00000000868 (0.000000868%).
And you are still enacting conspiracy theory 101. You have a questionable fact that you are going to keep drilling down on and use to justify every single claim you have. But you completely ignore why suicide rates might be higher for people in a whistleblower situation or why people might be at heightened risk of medical complications in 2024. And why that may also have a link to deciding to throw away a career in the interest of the public good.
And the worst part? This will do exactly what every other nutbrain conspiracy theory does. It provides incredibly easy to refute accusations and then undermines anyone who actually cares about how much boeing knowingly allowed. Because all the people who will point out exactly what these whistleblowers fought to get out there? They are dragged down by your ranting and raving.
Maybe it was murder, maybe it was just two tragic deaths. Time will tell. But let’s focus on the actual accusations rather than make up some because we want a really juicy true crime podcast?
The chance of killing youself after saying you’re not killing yourself negates any raised suicide rate of whistleblowers, and when the chance of foulplay is vastly higher than it not being foulplay, it is no longer a conspiracy theory. Having two whistleblowers from the same case suddenly die is extremely unlikely.
I didn’t make up any accusations. I stated how it is vastly more likely they were murdered than that they weren’t if I removed any circumstantial information. Adding circumstantial information very likely sways it even further into murder territory, and not the opposite as you claim.
This is such a ridiculous argument when your argument essentially is shilling for a company and trying to downplay how suspicious this whole thing is. By easily refutable you must mean “maybe a meteor killed both” levels of stars aligning.
Them being murdered automatically becomes an actual accusation.
Assassinations are not a rare occurrence, but you’re making it sound like fairy tale material.
Ah, thank you for explaining that.
A quick google that has totally gotten me on a list says that it is estimated that about 5-10% of people who have attempted suicide will die by suicide within a year. Many of those people were talked down and said they weren’t going to… until they did.
Citation requested
Oh, is that the entirety of it? Okay. Planes tend to not have doors fall off. So if there are multiple doors falling off of planes it can’t possibly be a systemic issue. It is actually an evil conspiracy theory out to attack Boeing. Because anything else by my poorly defined metrics is extremely unlikely
So…
Hey, that is fun.
No. I am not trying to downplay things. I am doing the opposite. I want people to focus on the actual safety issues and design issues. Not to fantasize over what T Swizzy Wizzle will say on the podcast about this in a few months.
Also, real talk? Just because someone doesn’t support you in every single way does not mean they are “shilling for a company”
… Yes. Yes assassinations are actually a very rare occurrence. Quick google says the murder rate in the US in 2022 was 5-6 murders per 100,000 people. If we assume all of those are assassinations (and not just kids dying in “gang violence” in a preschool). Same google says 14.5 suicides per 100,000 people.
Hmmm. So a bit under 3x. And, switching to chatgpt because I can’t be bothered to math across the different demographics, we get 100-150 deaths per 100,000 men aged 18 to 50 from medical complications.
Gasp!
And suicide rates go up drastically when people are overly stressed and think they have no future. Sort of like… having contributed to incredibly dangerous air travel and burning bridges with an entire industry.
Similarly, like I said, a lot of whistleblowers are ill to begin with. Because, again, it is throwing away your future in an industry. It is a lot easier to consider that when your future on this planet is measured in years or even months.
You don’t compare the stats to the population in its entirety. That’s like trying to calculate how dangerous it is for cyclists on the road by using the entire population. Most Americans don’t even own a bike. It is literally impossible for them to die riding their bike to work because they never ride a bike to work. They should not be included in an assessment of how dangerous it is/isn’t to be a daily bike commuter. Only people who ride bikes regularly should be included.
An example I use in another comment: you are far more likely to die falling to your death if you skydive once a year than the average American. If you suddenly died due to a parachute malfunction nobody would immediately start citing how statistically unusual it is for an American to die from falling to their death. You would be compared against the larger skydiving population and other risk factors would be assessed with that.
You do for disease and suicide as it can happen to literally anyone.
If working for a specific company or being a whistleblower affects those statistics, the company should be held responsible anyway.
No, the whole point is you don’t unless you’re specifically asking “how likely is it for anyone” which is not applicable here. That’s like me trying to figure out how likely I am to die of diabetes within 24hrs when I don’t have diabetes. The answer is 0%, because I don’t have diabetes. So including me in a stat about likelihood of death when discussing diabetes is bad math unless you are trying to calculate the likelihood of it happening to literally anyone, which is not useful beyond answering that specific question.
You’re also denying the existence of more at-risk groups for things like suicide and illnesses. Different groups are more at risk than others. Imagine calculating how likely someone is to be an alcoholic without considering family history, their social and economic realities, etc. all of which increase or decrease the % chance they will develop alcoholism. Literally 0 experts will agree with your assessment if you leave those risk factors out.
You don’t include people who aren’t at risk of MRSA. You and I right now discussing this have a near-0% chance of catching it. So near that it functionally is 0%. We are not useful information. We should not be included in calculating the probability because he is more at risk by a large margin. We are not part of the data set.
From what is currently known about the two whistleblowers neither were particularly at higher risk of suicide or MRSA. The person who died of MRSA was healthy and active with no history of hospitalization whatsoever. Close friends of the first whistleblower claim that suicide was very unlike him, and his previous statement of “if anything happens, it wasn’t suicide” strengthens that.
There are other commenters here speculating that being a whistleblower makes you at higher risk of suicide, but there are no official statistics on that, so it is at most speculation, therefore I need to use general statistics.
All probabilistic models and datasets eventually get replaced with more accurate ones, but that doesn’t discredit them until then.
How is your take also not a conspiracy theory? You just pinned it on the little guy instead of a megacorp
That’s not a conspiracy theory.
Well, for one thing, the definition of “conspiracy” is “a secret agreement between two or more people to perform an unlawful act”. So… you can’t have a one person conspiracy.
Ah yes, technicalities, the best of defenses