• skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de
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    1 year ago

    you’re missing the point

    for putin the primary objective is staying in power. during his term, starting a war to drum up nationalist sentiments in order to ignore economic shitshow and decaying state apparatus worked pretty well already three times - in 1999 bombings blamed on chechens which served as a pretext for second chechen war, invasion of georgia in 2008 and invasion of donbas and crimea in 2014. it even worked for few first weeks in 2022, it just happens that he bit way too much than he could chew.

    putin will try to go forward at current slow pace because backing off would be a political suicide, and escalation to nukes would be an actual suicide (there’s already nuclear bunker buster with putin’s name on it somewhere in the midwest). he won’t do either, instead he’ll try to limit western aid to prevent western escalation which would also be catastrophic to him. here you have it explained nicely with sources https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4