Do you have a non paywalled link? And is that quote in relation to LLMs specifically or AI generally?

largely based on the notion that LLMs will, with continued scaling, become artificial general intelligence

Who said that LLMs were going to become AGI? LLMs as part of an AGI system makes sense but not LLMs alone becoming AGI. Only articles and blog posts from people who didn’t understand the technology were making those claims. Which helped feed the hype.

I 100% agree that we’re going to see an AI market correction. It’s going to take a lot of hard human work to achieve the real value of LLMs. The hype is distracting from the real valuable and interesting work.

This is true on algorithmic platforms that reward “engagement” of any kind. I didn’t get that sense from pre 2010 Facebook or Twitter and I don’t get that sense on fediverse platforms.

I’m not defending Sam Altman or the AI hype. A framework that uses an LLM isn’t an LLM and doesn’t have the same limitations. So the accurate media coverage that LLMs may have reached a plateau doesn’t mean we won’t see continued performance in frameworks that use LLMs. OpenAI’s o1 is an example. o1 isn’t an LLM, it’s a framework that augments some of the deficiencies of LLMs with other techniques. That’s why it doesn’t give you an immediate streamed response when you use it, it’s not just an LLM.

That’s not Sam Altman saying that LLMs will achieve AGI. LLMs are large language models, OpenAI is continuing to develop LLMs (like GPT-4o) but they’re also working on frameworks that use LLMs (like o1). Those frameworks may achieve AGI but not the LLMs themselves. And this is a very important distinction because LLMs are reaching performance parity so we are likely reaching a plateau for LLMs given the existing training data and techniques. There is still optimizations for LLMs like increasing context window sizes etc.

When has Sam Altman said LLMs will reach AGI? Can you provide a primary source?

I’m developing some human centric LLM frameworks at work. Every API request to OpenAI is currently subsidized by venture capital. I do worry about what the industry will look like once there is a big price adjustment. Locally run models are pretty decent now and the pace is still moving forward, especially with regards to context window sizes so as long as I keep the frameworks model agnostic it might not be a big impact.

I don’t think anyone in the industry thought LLMs were going to reach AGI. But LLMs will be useful as part of an AGI framework. That’s the current focus in the industry.

Most Americans and Russians are great people. Unfortunately even great people can fall for propaganda.

Yay! I’m in! I’m very excited about this

Lol, exactly and the CDC advisory is for 10 states

Lol, I think that was BTKFS but maybe I should switch just to be safe

I normally use ext4 or btrfs and I like my wife so I won’t make the switch

Lol, yes he was surprised by the police and search parties 😅

Well I was 5 and my friend’s dad drove me home

Maybe this is outside of the thought experiment but I would focus on digitization. Text compresses very well and you can fit 100Gb on a CD sized disc with an estimated 50+ years lifespan (m-disc). So you could easily fit over 30 million text only books on a single 100 disc spindle which is the size of 3 small physical books. Add some redundancy and it might be 25 million books. Books with images would be slightly less compressible but you could still fit 100s of thousands on a single spindle with redundancy. Get yourself a small bar sized wine fridge to control humidity and you could probably fit every book every made in there.

This all assumes you want to preserve the content of the books and not the books themselves. You obviously can’t digitize every aspect of a physical book like the ornate artwork on the spine etc. in which case I would focus my preserving efforts on those books and digitize everything else.

I’m sorry about your grandmother. Given she had a stocked liquor cabinet for guests shows she was a thoughtful person. I hope you found some great memories in her belongings.

Is the molecule willpower?

If you’re immortal in the sense that you don’t age it would be dangerous to be outted. 8 billion jealous mortals would be an issue for you.

Pluto is a mushroom