The Russian economy will collapse, sooner or later.

I agree, but think it’s later. Russia needs to lose on the battlefield as well before they stop the war.

Exactly, it can go bat -> livestock/pet -> human just as well.

For your next psychedelic trip, think about your gut microbiome.

Russia has been steadily and slowly gaining territory over the last year.

If the Russia had to switch to defending territory without gaining anything more, how would it push for a victory before its economy collapsing?

The current attempt is Trump. It’s doubtful the Russian economy will collapse any time soon. They still have some slack and the Russian population could suffer far more. Their strategy after the first couple of months was to outlast Ukraine and its supporters. The moaning about costs in the countries supporting Ukraine is only growing. Russia has a firm lid on all opposition.

Nobody is doing the same for the Russia

China

Kazachstan

They only recently deployed soldiers in the capital there.

John Mearsheimer

is not the be all end all of geopolitics. His “realist” perspective is limited and he has often been wrong, including regarding Ukraine.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/power-of-power-politics/mearsheimers-multipolar-myths-and-the-false-promise-of-realist-policy-prescriptions-the-empirical-inaccuracy-of-the-realist-paradigm/AEDB8F3F56FD2D5048E79FD8332A5DAE

Maersheimer is also an apologist for imperialism.

who foresaw this war coming ten years ago

The war started when Russia took Crimea in 2014, that’s 11 years ago. Georgia was invaded in 2008.

MItt Romney warned of Russian agression back in 2012.

Dugin’s Foundation of Geopolitics was published in 1997 and outlined how Russia could regain its lost empire.

In the 1990s, the US would have been glad if the Europeans would have managed the Yugoslav disintegration and ensuing wars with ethnic cleansing themselves. They were unable and had to rely on the US in Bosnia and Kosovo.

That only means they will have to scale back offensive operations and switch to a defensive posture.

How manu are is still left of well trained VDV and guards units?

He is okay and mostly factual. The tactical and operational analysis is good. However he has been wrong in the past, especially with his strategic interpretations and long term predictions.

The status quo favors Russia. If we don’t get our heads out of our asses and step up Russia will win

That has been his refrain from the beginning. Yet Ukraine is still very much in the fight.

The we is also kind of ironic since Austria doesn’t send any arms to Ukraine. The Austrian government and intelligence services as notoriously influenced by Russia. So take that in mind as well.

GDP can increase during a war, but that’s not as beneficial as growth during peace. After all the military equipment produced doesn’t last long or provides much long term value to the economy. A civilian truck, excavator, or train locomotive can create more value for an economy for decades. A trank or artillery piece will only last for a few months during war and only causes destruction, no creation. So yeah, nominally the economy might increase, but all that labor might be for nothing in the end.

It has been very impressive how Russia transformed its economy and circumvented sanctions. Production of military equipment is high and still increasing in parts. Goods for domestic consumption are also doing okay and standard of living hasn’t fallen much.

Of course none of this is sustainable and has only been achievable by all kinds of tricks, but for now it works.

Dear comrade Laser, ✊★🚩

the fascist Melon Muskrat needs to be destroyed. The last couple of weeks I have been practicing propaganda of the deed and marked Tesla swasticars appropriately all over my state. Here’s a photo with proof of a recent artwork of mine.

Fighting this essential antifascist fight in these times of techno-feudal-nazi takeover costs me a lot of time and also money for supplies like spray cans, bus tickets, burner phones, and now also legal costs.

Last week the fucking pigs (ACAB) caught me when a petit bourgeois snitch reported me and now I’m in legal trouble. The class traitors now want to squeeze 3500 $ from me.

Your solidarity and mutual aid is essential for me and my comrades to continue the fight against tyranny. Every little thing helps.

Revolutionary thanks and Antifascist greetings

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no pasarán. hasta la victoria siempre.  ✊

https://taz.de/Tuerken-fuer-die-AfD/!5449750/

This is about Germans with Turkish background. It’s the same as in other countries: We came here legally and are law abiding taxpayers. These illegal newcomers are criminals and ruin the image of all immigrants. It’s about law and order and strong leadership. If you vote Erdogan in Turkey, AfD is closest in Germany. The Grey Wolves are the biggest right wing extremist organizations in Germany as well, so keep that in mind.

German-Turks are also specifically targeted like in this video by Krah appealing to nationalist sentiments and referring back to German-Turkish alliance going back to WW1.

scandals relating to Wehrmacht idolisation

Yes, this happens from time to time as does other crap. The severity of these cases varies.

In 2023 the Bundeswehr let go of 62 soldiers, among them 10 officers, for extremism. It’s not just nazis, but also for example anti-vax conspiracy nutters. I don’t have any comparisons of these numbers to other armed forces.

The Bundeswehr emphasizes democratic values and educates people along their principles of Innere Führung and Staatsbürger in Uniform. For example that soldiers are ultimately serving their conscience is stressed. Structurally the Bundeswehr also has differences to other militaries. There are no separate military courts for example. Crimes involving soldiers get dealt with by regular courts.

In 2019 about 15% of soldiers have immigrant parents or immigrated themselves. Of course they can be extremists just as well.

like the only seats they’re winning

Germany has proportional distribution of seats. This map doesn’t show that.

Die Linke is a continuation of the ruling party of the socialist dictatorship DDR in East Germany. It’s a collection of some literal old school o.g. tankies from the Socialist government, actual communists, democratic socialists, left social democrats who left the SPD, and people from social movements. In short it’s a mix of people left of social democrats. In East Germany it’s also a conservative party in a way for people who want the old DDR back. However it also has a strong support nowadays among the educated urban “woke” left. They reject rearmament for Germany and reject sending arms to Ukraine. Although they blame Russia for the war, they have an anti-western ideology and want to disband NATO in favor of an alliance with Russia. Kuba’s foreign policy is mentioned favorably in their election agenda.

Last year prominent tankie-ish leader Sarah Wagenknecht split off the Linke to form their own party BSW. BSW is the anti-woke left, who care about social policies first, but don’t put a focus on LGBT, want more strict immigration. They gained 4.9% in the election and thus narrowly missed getting seats in parliament. They blame NATO for the war in Ukraine. Exiting NATO in favor of an alliance with Russia is also on their agenda.

So the answer if they’re tankies is not simple. Linke is more the useful idiot of Putin, while BSW are actual Putin bootlickers.

Is it just a matter of the poorer more overlooked areas becoming polarised?

Economic issues play a role as well of course.

Leipzig similarly

Gelsenkirchen is a traditional working class area, which used to be secure SPD heartland. SPD has lost voters massively to AfD among workers over the years, including among the immigrant working class.

Soldiers in Germany tend to vote CDU. The last couple of years the head of the Bundestag’s defense commission Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann from the FDP was super popular. In the past SPD was also really strong. These two polls on the Bundeswehr subreddit have FDP and CDU together with a supermajority. Now that’s of course not representative, but gives you an idea that the military doesn’t vote far right.

Block the instance. It improves your experience.

Israel has been part of Eurovision since 1973, has won four times, and hosted the contest three times. Dana International was the first trans winner.

This year’s artist, Yuval Raphael, was attending the Nova Sukkot festival on October 7th 2023.

Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Tunesia, Algeria, and Morocco are eligible to participate in the Eurovision Song Contest. They have been mostly boycotting it because of Israel’s participation.

NuII works

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The democrats have failed repeatedly to convince the American people of an alternative vision for the future. Obama provided a vision, but the execution fell short. Not Trump wasn’t good enough of an idea.