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Cake day: June 23rd, 2023

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  • Hezbollah has been launching combination rocket/drone attacks along the entire northern border for the last 6 months. In the least week or two there have been several reports of hits without any warning sirens. I’m inclined to say that this is indicative of a shift in tactics and/or technology that has been shared, and may also impact the Ukraine war (the drones are the same Iranian design/manufacture).

    This incident will draw lots of saber rattling against the Houthis, and there will probably be some air raids on Houthi military assets by various coalition forces. The ones to watch here are Saudi Arabia and Jordan - they both have the opportunity to earn some goodwill for relatively little risk and achieve their own goals at the same time.

    I have no clue if the Houthis will attempt to escalate this with larger drone swarms. Their doctrine so far has been less than 20 daily, most of which are targeting ships or Eilat. But this is the first time they’ve directly targeted Tel Aviv.






















  • I doubt the intelligence they transferred is only about the 12, given the size and immediacy of the reaction. Those are the ones they were able to most easily prove using Hamas’ own footage of October 7th.

    My guess is they passed a list with a lot more than 12 to each of those countries, and said “watch how many they fire”.

    Bottom line is that it isn’t in Israel’s best interests to stop all aid - they want to avoid a true humanitarian crisis (as opposed to the current threat of one) to achieve the war goals: return the hostages and destroy Hamas. UNRWA is best positioned to provide aid, but the proof on the ground is that they aren’t distributing that aid effectively at all and people are suffering as a result.