Syrian Civil War is over. Now another Syrian Civil War will begin
i somehow doubt that that widely divergent alliance of convenience will hold any reasonable time. there’s a massive issue of ceasefire between SDF and SNA/SSG/FSA or however they’re called now, and it’s not like the latter is a monolith. there is everything from former AQ jihadis to secularists and minorities like Druze
there already seems to be sectarian divide precipitating between shias and sunnis
Well, there’s a different group known as Syrian Democratic Forces that control the Northeastern of the country, a different group from the ones that took the Syrian capital and the western areas of the country.
My prediction is. We might see another civil war between these 2 different group.
Disorder
Absolutely none. The strongest force is now the HTS AFAIK, but there are a whole bunch of other groups involved in the current offensive, both Islamist and Secular. This could go anywhere from free elections (okay probably not this one) to another dictatorship to civil war 2: electric boogaloo.
you can take a guess by looking at how HTS/SSG administered areas looked like two weeks ago. they might be aiming for something like very slightly more liberal saudi arabia (women are allowed to study)
The same thing with a different face
HTS is currently pledged to Syrian Salvation Government, which is basically the opposition government in exile (operating from Istanbul), governing NW Syria (4 mil pop) from the back seat for the last 10 years. HTS is just acting as its main (but not only) militia organization, and Jolani said HTS will oversee the Syrian state’s transition to SSG.
We’ll hear the names of Mohammed al-Bashir and Mustafa al-Mousa in the coming days.
HTS mostly consists of militants splintered off from Al Qaeda and ISIS, and waged war against them. Apparently they gave up “Salafist” terrorism to turn into a Syrian Nationalist movement instead. Jolani sounded more moderate than I was expecting, so let’s hope the new western backed puppet state brings some peace to Syrians after all.
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