I think the timing isn’t quite right, because the other social media places aren’t figuratively totally on fire.
There isn’t “the great social media collapse of 20XX” happening, because of some security issue or servers being super expensive or ads being actually 99% of the content. The forces that be are managing things well enough that things aren’t collapsing right now.
There is no single actually big celebrity that has picked a fediverse platform as the place to be, follow and discuss news.
And there is no killer feature that you can only get here.
The bonfire is stacked nicely, but there is no spark. For now. That could change at any moment, but it could also take a while.
It also means “we don’t know (yet)” so there is a chance it’s not that toxic.