Ben Matthews

It’s about future oil and gas expansion (FOGE), what matters to the atmosphere is the total - identifying potential threat. Effectively multiplying FOGE by area (as shown) doesn’t make sense, but neither does FOGE per capita (as most is exported, not consumed locally). I’d suggest just a sized blob for each country - then can show some other dimension with the color.

I see that says ‘has to be local only, not federated’ (same issue also discussed on github).
‘Local only’ suggests to me front-end, i.e. info stored by browser. In that case people who are often switching devices would have to re-organise on each one, which could be tedious.
So isn’t there something in between local and federated - i.e. saved by the instance as user-settings, but not pushed to other instances?
Maybe there could be some manual copying mechanism, so a user who organises a big set of communities could share with others. (This reminds me of mastodon ‘lists’ and various ways of organising and transferring them).

Nearly 200 upthumbs, more ?!
But the discussion explores broader and narrow variants, need to coalesce.

This makes sense for mid-latitudes, but the timing of peak power will depend on how much energy the current youth in India and children in central Africa will aspire to use as they get older. That’s hard to ‘predict’ - it’s their choice of development pathway, but hope they don’t follow China’s route with so much cement, steel, roads, there are other options.

La droite a utilisé des accusations similaires pour démoniser Jeremy Corbyn en angleterre pour l’élection de 2019. Bien que je ne suis aucun fan de lui - qui a fait des nombreux erreurs sur d’autres sujets, quand même il connaissait bien la situation en Palestine. Ce n’est pa la vérité ou l’équilibre qui compte pour la droite - si une recette fonctionne pour gagner, ils la répètent.

From the tasks described, it seems to me they were not measuring ‘Computer Skills’ as reasoning, patience, tenacity - people could have similar issues with similar tasks involving a pile of papers.

Moi je ne suis pas français mais habitant d’un pays voisin, et pendant multiples années je n’avais pas voyagé loin en France en train avec ma famille, pour exactement ce raison, bien que nous voyageons souvent en train vers la reste de l’europe.
Néanmoins ce mai nous avons trouvé des billets de la frontière Belge jusqu’à la frontière Espagnol pour 29€ par personne !
J’était aussi surpris par les offres des trains régionales d’Occitanie.
Donc, c’est possible hors des périodes fort occupés (dans ce cas grace au déplacement des congés scolaires belges). J’ai l’impression que c’est la capacité du stock roulant qui manque. Aussi la centralisation du réseau tgv le fait pratique (et parfois bon marché) pour les Parisiens, mais pas pour tous les autres (nous n’avons pas pris tgv…).

Well, maybe not just wait … Some factors will fall back - e.g. El Niño is a cycle, so are sunspots, ocean patches go round in (big-slow) loops, forests can run out of tinder (for a while). But to be sure to tip the balance of those climate-carbon feedbacks we need to get the temperature down - this could be done quicker by focusing especially on emissions of shorter-lived gases - mainly methane. Cutting out aviation-induced cirrus might also help to cancel some of the warming we got from cutting shipping sulphate - the opposite effect is because low clouds cause net cooling, high clouds cause net warming (depending on angle of sun etc. …). The good news is that models already include most of these factors, the bad news is that models say we have to cut emissions much faster than we do.

Global directly-anthropogenic CO2 emissions - things we measure and attribute to countries - have been flat in the period 2019-23 (except for covid dip), and maybe falling this year (due to changes in China). However there are also climate -> carbon feedbacks. The most obvious are forest fires which tend to peak during El Niño years (it’s a repeating pattern - I even remember 1998 seeming bad). Heating also enhances respiration by bugs in soils, and reduces the solubility of CO2 in seawater - the ocean is the largest and most long-term CO2 sink. El Niño also changes ocean circulation temporarily, but I forget which way this impacts CO2 (it’s not trivial - you have to think about the history and future of large patches of water).
So, if known emissions are flat, but there is a record increase in the atmosphere, that means those feedbacks are worse. It takes a while to disentangle the factors, but this is not a surprise to me.

“…at a rate of roughly 0.05 percent per day … would take a very long time” … but by my quick calculation 0.9995^3650 is 84% per decade, which is not long. Almost instantaneous on a geological timescale - and think how much the world changed when fungi learned how to digest lignin in wood - ending the era of coal-forming swamps.

Of course all emissions should be counted. It’s not just the explosions and burning oil, I’d guess that manufacturing all the steel and chemicals also uses loads of energy. Some stockpiles used now may be associated with emissions long ago, e.g. in the last decades of the soviet union emissions rose very high, even while the economy was low.

Hi, excuse me for replying so late, but i’ve been away from lemmy for.a while. Well, to summarise, the model calculates the future trajectories, of population, economy, emissions, atmospheric gases, and climate response etc., according to a set of (hundreds of) diverse options and uncertainties which you can adjust - the key feature is that the change shows rapidly enough to let you follow cause -> effect, to understand how the system responds in a quasi-mechanical way.
Indeed you are right, complexity is beautiful, but hard. A challenge with such tools is to adjust gradually from simple to complex. Although SWIM has four complexity levels, they are no longer systematically implemented - also what seems simple or complex varies depending where each person is coming from, so i think to adapt the complexity filter into a topic-focus filter. Much todo …

I’m using Alexandrite, find it good

As it happens I’ve been calculating per capita emissions for 28 years, since COP2. You can see my model here.
No I certainly don’t include Russia nor Turkey, although europe is more than EU. Korea is indeed notable. Regarding what they call ‘consumption emissions’, you can get such data from Global Carbon Project, on that I’m less an expert but my hunch is that industry emissions are dominated by heavy products like steel and cement for construction (made with help of gigatons of coal), rather than light consumer goods for export. Over-construction is the root of the problem, global emissions will peak (maybe now) as that bubble bursts.

lopq’s original comment is correct for ‘whole west’ too. the second part is also true per capita. By the way europe also has a lot more people than united states, it’s not irrelevant.

You are right, it’s simple numbers, scientific fact, pity so much downvotes, people should check recent data rather than get stuck with old concepts from 1990s (when climate politics began).

Yes they invested enormously in high-speed train lines. But look on satellite image around those train stations, new city blocks have massive roads everywhere, 5 lanes in each direction, plus in parallel another set of toll roads. Even if those roads were empty , the cement and steel for all that has contributed enormous quantity of CO2 to the atmosphere.
Chinese emissions per capita are higher than european average for many years now, however they always pick the worst country in the world for comparison statistics.

Emissions per capita of China have been higher than the european average for about a decade now.

Hope they thought through the whole story. Cape town has a micorclimate squeezed between sea and desert, so it may be a special case, but in general as climate changes, plants should be able to migrate too. Trees evapo-transpire, large areas of trees help to create clouds, and convection cells, and maybe rain. So such policy might help increase groundwater in the short term, but not in the longer term.

Tragic, but change now seems inevitable, although they didn’t cause it ( should be compensated by the big soybean/cattle-ranchers who driver deforestation, inter alia ). Maybe similar situation to Sundarbans in Bengal ( although they don’t have açaí ) .