Idk, when you look at the entire picture, does Trump not have the far easier path to 270 this year? He only has to win 2 states (PA & GA) and that’s it, he wins. Kamala has to win at the minimum 3, and if she loses PA, it becomes even harder for her. Trump could just spend all of his money campaigning in those 2 states and get back in the White House. Yet these odds seem to disagree with me.

Am I trippin?

  • FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world
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    5 months ago

    37% of Americans can’t afford to pay a $400 bill without taking on further debt, and that means 37% of Americans can’t afford to miss a day of work to vote.

    It really could go either way.

      • AndrewZabar@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        It’s not strange; they don’t want the poorest and lower class people to be able to vote.

      • distantsounds@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        If the goal was to have everyone vote, it wouldn’t be Tuesday and everyone would automatically be registered with mail-in being an option.

      • kent_eh@lemmy.ca
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        5 months ago

        Or at least a legal requirement for employers to allow time off during employees shifts to vote.

        • mke_geek@lemm.ee
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          4 months ago

          Federal law doesn’t require employers to give employees any time off to vote, much less paid time off. Instead, the laws vary from state to state: Just 29 states and the District of Columbia currently require employers to give employees time off to vote in general elections.

          • kent_eh@lemmy.ca
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            4 months ago

            Federal law doesn’t require employers to give employees any time off to vote

            I know it doesn’t.

            I’m saying it should.

            • mke_geek@lemm.ee
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              4 months ago

              That would be something you’d have to take up with the government. Maybe start local because every state can set different laws.

      • FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        Sadly, it’s not strange at all. We’re a capitalist country. This is what our votes support every two years.

  • SomeAmateur@sh.itjust.works
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    5 months ago

    I think Kamala has much better odds than Biden did this time around. The assassination attempt on Trump was crazy and solidified his supporters.

    I think it’s a closer race than either side thinks

  • Zerlyna@lemmy.world
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    5 months ago

    I think/hope the red states become more purple this go around. Might even flip a few small ones by the time November comes 🤞

    • BadmanDan@lemmy.worldOP
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      5 months ago

      I saw the rumor that Trump’s internal polling showed him below 50% in Ohio, if true, that would be huge for Harris

      • Zerlyna@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        My corner of TN is very red. I noticed the other day, whereas in 2020 the trump signs were all over, none are out now. Don’t see the shirts. And I’ve found a lot of blue friends here in the last year.

  • superkret@feddit.org
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    5 months ago

    Anyone else feel like it’s weird how many are using the last name for Trump but the first name for Harris? What’s the deal with that?

    • AwkwardLookMonkeyPuppet@lemmy.world
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      5 months ago

      They always do that with women for some reason. It made sense for Hillary, since her husband was already President Clinton. It doesn’t make any sense for Harris

      • BigMikeInAustin@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        Who was getting confused which Clinton was running in 2016.

        If someone was switching between both in the same context, then it would either be Mr. Clinton and Mrs. Clinton, or Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton.

        • AwkwardLookMonkeyPuppet@lemmy.world
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          5 months ago

          I didn’t say they were getting confused. It was for clarity and distinction, not because people were confused. Although, had she won, a distinction would be imperative to prevent confusion, just like we do with the Roosevelts. Anyways, Hillary is the one who used Hillary, the rest of us just went along with it. Hillary was the name she chose for her campaign.

        • BigMikeInAustin@lemmy.world
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          5 months ago

          We didn’t refer to the 43rd president as George since his father with the same last name was already the 41st president.

          People did not get confused which Clinton was running in 2016.

          • AwkwardLookMonkeyPuppet@lemmy.world
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            5 months ago

            No, we called him George W., Junior, or Dub’ya. You can’t call him George because his dad was also George.

            Edit: I mean, you can call him George, or Bush. You can call him whatever you want. But people in general called him the names I gave, to avoid confusion.

  • dhork@lemmy.world
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    5 months ago

    That assumes that the rest of the states shake out as expected. NC and Ohio have been polling a lot closer than expected. Winning one of those would offset a loss in PA or GA.

    There’s a reason why we still hold the actual election, and don’t base the winner just on polls.

  • xmunk@sh.itjust.works
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    5 months ago

    I think the odds at the moment still favor Trump but Harris has run a solid campaign so far. We’re still in “it’s anyone’s game” territory but Trump is constantly losing ground.

    A poll recently showed that more Americans trust Harris with the economy and that’s a really bad sign for Trump.

  • frankPodmore@slrpnk.net
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    5 months ago

    You may well be right and that’s why it’s vital not to be complacent. Donate, volunteer, vote. Get out there and make a Harris win happen!

  • LunchMoneyThief@links.hackliberty.org
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    5 months ago

    If you totally unplugged from informational media, and went to live out your days engaging only in the things which bring you joy, would you be able to tell who the current sitting president was solely by indirect observation? People like to blame presidents for “the price at the pump” and other miniscule day-to-day things. But is there any substance to that?

  • kingthrillgore@lemmy.ml
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    4 months ago

    Nate Silver still has the EVs for Trump. Like he did in 2016. I’m making no illusions of the future. All my plans assume a Trump victory.

    Unfortunately his models are paywalled so I cannot completely confirm this.


    Register to vote at vote.org

  • andrewta@lemmy.world
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    5 months ago

    I personally believe trump will be president. It’s just a given at this point. Will I vote against him? Yes.

    But I am a realist. It’s just what is going to happen.

    • BadmanDan@lemmy.worldOP
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      5 months ago

      I am 100% voting for Kamala, fuck MAGA. But like you said, if we’re being realistic, thanks to the Electoral College and Protest Votes. Trump’s path to 270 is far easier.