• Maggoty@lemmy.world
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          6 months ago

          Well you’re not wrong. But the last time they tried, it was the Vietnamese communists that stopped them. Of course that was on the ass end of 60 years of near continuous combat experience.

      • rottingleaf@lemmy.zip
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        6 months ago

        I agree about India, but you seem to overestimate Russia.

        The populations and economies are just too different.

        If PRC decides it needs the Russian Far East and wants it militarily, it’s going to take it. Maybe only the southern parts, they don’t need all the empty frozen land. Maybe in 20 years, maybe in 40, maybe in 80 years.

        And in the very long term, if China subdues Central Asia in any way, then it can get a piece of southern Siberia too, but that’s like trying to predict WWII from Wallenstein’s times.

        • SinningStromgald@lemmy.world
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          6 months ago

          Eventually, if China is successful with its expansions, it will turn to Russia for more. I was talking more in my lifetime what could happen if everyone sits on its hands and lets China do as it pleases.

      • Flying Squid@lemmy.world
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        6 months ago

        The fact that it was the last refuge of the Chinese democratic republic he fought against for one thing.

        • cecinestpasunbot@lemmy.ml
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          6 months ago

          Let’s be fair, the ROC under the KMT and Chiang Kai-shek was far from democratic despite their claim to Sun Yat-sen’s legacy.

          • DragonTypeWyvern@literature.cafe
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            6 months ago

            As seen with Chiang Kai-Shek’s preferred ally against the Japanese Empire, Nazi Germany. Didn’t work out for him, but if he didn’t join the Allies we’d call him what he was, a corrupt fascist warlord whose only saving grace was not being the Qing Dynasty or Imperial Japan.

            Communist revolutionary armies don’t quintuple their size with volunteers in three years after you technically repelled a genocidal conquest when you rule with the consent of the governed.

            Of course, that was then, and this is now.

            • crackajack@reddthat.com
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              6 months ago

              Chiang is hardly fascist.

              Also, bear in mind that Chiang got plenty of help from the Soviets too, and the US, before both countries even fought Japan. Chiang was only glad to receive help when he could.

              Communist revolutionary armies don’t quintuple their size with volunteers in three years after you technically repelled a genocidal conquest when you rule with the consent of the governed.

              KMT was corrupt and had to appease various warlords who allied with them. Mao exploited that inherent division to persuade the population to turn against KMT and Chiang. Mao also convinced many KMT soldiers to defect after Chiang’s disastrous Manchurian campaign. There was a AskHistorians thread about it before which explains KMT’s collapse and retreat to Taiwan.

      • scarabic@lemmy.world
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        6 months ago

        The place is a jewel. Have you learned anything about it? You don’t just randomly become the world’s leading high tech manufacturer. They have great land, great resources, a great trading location, great people, great natural defenses… Any country on Earth would flip to have Taiwan.

    • cecinestpasunbot@lemmy.ml
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      6 months ago

      I suspect China believes it can outpace the economic growth of Taiwan in the long run. If Taiwan’s business elites start to think they’re missing out on that growth by opposing reunification, then you’ll see a political shift in Taiwan.

    • Asafum@feddit.nl
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      6 months ago

      In Chinese: “it sure would be a shame if I happened to lose control of all these bullets and bombs around my your country.”

  • markr@lemmy.world
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    6 months ago

    The PRC has always maintained that Taiwan is part of China and will be eventually incorporated back into PRC. (The ROC had the same position, but with respect to the mainland until 1991.) Taiwan was in fact part of China from 1683 until the Japanese started their imperial colonization of China and Korea, taking Taiwan in 1895. It would be news and a really big deal if the PRC stopped making that claim.

    • zzzz@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      … will be eventually incorporated back into PRC

      It has never been part of the PRC.

      • markr@lemmy.world
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        6 months ago

        As far as the PRC is concerned Taiwan has always been part of the PRC. That was the point. The Taiwan policy of the PRC hasn’t changed.

        • DragonTypeWyvern@literature.cafe
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          6 months ago

          It also depends on your personal definition of a “nation” and whether you consider the Chinese Civil War to be over.

          Fun History Fact:

          Truman wasn’t initially willing to involve the US in defending Taiwan from the PRC finishing the job in 1949, but no one bothered to tell them that, and then the Korean War kicked off and he instituted what would become known as the “Containment” policy.

    • HobbitFoot @thelemmy.club
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      6 months ago

      Yeah. This is a dance that the USA and China have been doing for half a century. The agreed upon resolution has been that the USA doesn’t declare that Taiwan is a sovereign nation and China doesn’t invade in the near term.

  • AmberPrince@kbin.social
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    6 months ago

    My pet theory is that this was said specifically to destabilize the US. As others have said, this is not new. China has been saying this for a long time. But 100% the GOP is going to call Biden weak for not shutting Xi down and instead saying the US supports a "One China Policy " without any critical thought as to what the dynamics are.

    This is to fire up the right wing base.

    • chitak166@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      This is to fire up the right wing base.

      Is it just me, or are they always fired up?

      I genuinely don’t believe Republicans calling Biden weak or any similar situation affecting how people vote at this point.

      • AmberPrince@kbin.social
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        6 months ago

        It’s not about how people vote. It’s about getting people to vote. Emotionally charged people are more likely to vote/volunteer/donate etc.

        I’m talking out of my ass by the way, I have nothing to prove any of this.

  • assembly@lemmy.world
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    6 months ago

    At this point Taiwan has been independent for a good long time so it’s probably time to recognize that. This comes down to what the people in Taiwan want. I’m guessing they are good with the current situation as it keeps tensions down but sooner or later they are going to have to make a hard choice and the US needs to back them on it. Either they vote for reunification (unlikely but you never know) or they unequivocally identify as not-China and completely independent. In the second case the US and world should be prepared to back Taiwan. What will actually happen? Well, if I were Taiwan, I wouldn’t want to piss of a neighbor like that who is likely to go psycho when you officially breakup. It’s like ripping off a bandaid. I would be terrified of what China will do no matter who is baking me up. Taiwan will have to make a choice sooner or later but I completely understand their hesitation.

    • Socsa@sh.itjust.works
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      6 months ago

      No you don’t get it people wanting to be free is just imperialist propaganda which can only be overcome by even bigger imperialism. They don’t actually want to be free, they’re just brainwashed.

  • ShadowRam@kbin.social
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    6 months ago

    …after US gets their chip manufacturing off the island.

    When the US can make their own chips, they won’t be risking defending Taiwan.

    • cecinestpasunbot@lemmy.ml
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      6 months ago

      I’d say Taiwan serves US geopolitical interests beyond just chip manufacturing. It exists as a separate political entity thanks to the US who intervened in the Chinese civil war to protect Chiang Kai-shek’s military dictatorship. The PRC wants to remedy what they perceive as the consequences of foreign interference in China’s political affairs. That enables the US to use their support for Taiwanese independence as leverage in their attempts to suppress China’s economic rise.

  • nucleative@lemmy.world
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    6 months ago

    The only way the current strategy of both sides changes is if a major factor changes, otherwise this cold standoff is the most stable place for both sides on the matter.

    It could be that an election in Taiwan is won by a very pro-China party - a similar thing led to rapid changes in Hong Kong. Or an American leader changes tactics dramatically because theres no longer an incentive to support Taiwan.

    Taiwan needs to be careful to guard against either situation happening.

    Differing from many superpowers that came before the US, the US has a reputation of following through on what it says it will do long term, and the vast geopolitical diplomatic reach of the Americans means that for now, China would experience too high an economic cost to try and change this balance unilaterally.

      • go_go_gadget@lemmy.world
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        6 months ago

        Especially when you consider that Biden and the powerful forces who actually get to decide how “the USA” responds to this are not for humanitarian reasons. “The USA” just wants nuclear launch sites as close as possible to China.

        • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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          6 months ago

          Most of China’a infrastructure is on the coast. We can achieve that with a couple SSBNs lurking thousands of kilometers off the coast.

          Bonus points if one surfaces where it can be photographed, but in international water, every so often. Just as a reminder.

            • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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              6 months ago

              Are just following me around? Hey while you’re here, are the people of Xinjiang Chinese or not? I just want to know if I should refer to them as an oppressed population or an occupied country?

                • Maggoty@lemmy.world
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                  6 months ago

                  Oh no, oh gosh. I’m sorry to be the one to tell you this but I was told that if I criticized the Chinese government I have to be a Sinophobe.

                  It’s okay, we have groups. And cookies.

    • chitak166@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      It could be that an election in Taiwan is won by a very pro-China party

      For some reason, I don’t see this ever happening. Even if it does happen, I can easily see Western propaganda painting it as a sham-election or something.

      They’re just that brazen with their bullshit to protect their interests.

      • cecinestpasunbot@lemmy.ml
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        6 months ago

        While no party in Taiwan is openly in favor of reunification, there are major parties like the KMT and the TPP that are in favor of building a closer relationship with mainland China. Combined they are currently polling higher than the DPP which is considered to be the “pro independence” party.

        So while I would agree that peaceful reunification is not possible in the near term, i think changes in the geopolitical dynamics between the US and China could make it more likely.

  • badbytes@lemmy.world
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    6 months ago

    How nice. So Taiwan leader can rule over all China. We don’t need China anymore. So generous of Xi.

  • xkforce@lemmy.world
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    6 months ago

    The US won’t allow it given how much industry there is of strategic importance to the US.

    • ShadowRam@kbin.social
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      6 months ago

      For now. There’s already shovels in the ground for the US to make their own advanced semi-conductors

      • Jaysyn@kbin.social
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        6 months ago

        And that’s not going well since TSMC wants slaves & US engineers have better options.

      • Linkerbaan@lemmy.world
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        6 months ago

        That is gonna take ages and the whole rest of the supply chain is in Asia too. Also all the personnel lives in Taiwan. There’s more to chip manufacturing than just buying the ASML machines.

    • EvergreenGuru@lemmy.world
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      6 months ago

      It’s absolutely insane and genocidal for you to wish for the drowning of millions of civilians.

      • The Snark Urge@lemmy.world
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        6 months ago

        Should China have this ideological adherence to reclaiming Taiwan, and be ramping up for a deadly and horrible invasion for it? No.

        Should the biggest industries on the planet and ultimately all technology users depend on the independence of a tiny island nation that has an unresolved civil war with an authoritarian superpower? Hell no.

        But those aren’t the questions we have to answer. We have to answer insane questions like “what will happen if China tries to seize Taiwan?” When the questions are insane, the answers are never good.

      • occhionaut@lemmy.world
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        6 months ago

        Its what is left available to Taiwan if all else fails. They don’t have nukes, but they do have (probably) enough missiles to breach the shitty construction of the dam. This is no different than the MAD doctrine.

        • EvergreenGuru@lemmy.world
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          6 months ago

          It’s MADdening that you believe that the US won’t be nuked for giving weapons to Taiwan and directing them to kill millions of people in mainland China. Taiwan doesn’t want to go to war with China and they’ve always wanted reunification. The US wants to divide and conquer China and should stop before it creates a nuclear catastrophe.

          • Blum0108@lemmy.world
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            6 months ago

            Lol ok. If Taiwan has always wanted reunification then why hasn’t it happened yet? Were they waiting for an invitation? This is bad Chinese astroturfing.

            • EvergreenGuru@lemmy.world
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              6 months ago

              Lol Taiwan and China have both claimed to be the “real China” but Taiwan is just a small separatist holdover of a civil war that ended nearly 75 years ago. Since they can’t run the show, they’re trying to be a wedge for US imperialism in east Asia. The People of Taiwan are Chinese citizens and the US should stop encouraging them to go to war to destroy themselves and their country.

              • wandermind@sopuli.xyz
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                6 months ago

                How petty the mainland Chinese must be if they cannot move on from a small island after three quarters of a century.

                • EvergreenGuru@lemmy.world
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                  6 months ago

                  Petty is when your girlfriend keeps your favorite shirt after the breakup.

                  Refusing to admit you lost a civil war 75 years ago and blowing up a major dam, killing 35 million people to stall unification is genocide.

              • falkerie71@sh.itjust.works
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                6 months ago

                Hey, how about you tell PRC to fuck off and not threaten war? You realize it’s been 75 years. That’s 2+ generations already, Taiwanese people no longer identify themselves as Chinese, and the ruling party now is not the same dictatorship that wants to reunite with China. No one wants war, but Taiwan does not want another dictatorship either.

                • rottingleaf@lemmy.zip
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                  6 months ago

                  Eh, I haven’t had an opportunity to ask, but I think they do identify as Chinese. Just not as citizens of PRC, because they are citizens of another sovereign state.

              • nonailsleft@lemm.ee
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                6 months ago

                Ok, then why continue lying about it and pretending China has to act against Taiwan to prevent it?

                • EvergreenGuru@lemmy.world
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                  6 months ago

                  I think the reason the US is lying is because they believe that they can undermine China’s position. They want to damage the country in some way to maintain their status as the sole superpower, but it’s too late for that. China is entrenched as a leader in world industry and attempting to contain them is impossible.

          • rottingleaf@lemmy.zip
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            6 months ago

            So China wants to be nuked by the US because of not backing down with their aggression in this case?

            Some of the Chinese nukes would be shot down in such a course of events - there are systems like THAAD. AFAIK China doesn’t have anything similar, so the response strike is going to be more efficient.

            There’s no rule or law preventing two Chinese states from existing on one planet. You pretending otherwise doesn’t change anything.

      • Jaysyn@kbin.social
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        6 months ago

        Wish? The fact you have to put words in my mouth to attempt to form an argument says more about you than me.